![]() When you have completed all the questions and reviewed your answers, press the button below to grade the test. A naive forecast for the temperature on Friday would be: The temperature on Tuesday was 80 degrees, on Wednesday it was 82 degrees, on Thursday it was 78 degrees. The next forecast is 66.9, implying a smoothing constant, alpha, equal to: The previous forecast of 66 turned out to be six units less than actual demand. Simple exponential smoothing is being used to forecast demand. Which of the following smoothing constants would make an exponential smoothing forecast equivalent to a naive forecast? When we use exponential smoothing for forecasting, the alpha value (smoothing constant) that would give the greatest weight to the current actuals would be: The cumulative forecast error is important for determining the: you may be worried about the common statistics problems like probability of happening of some specific event, mean, mode, median between the numbers, quartile of the dataset & hypothesis testing etc. Which probability distribution is used most extensively in dealing with forecasting errors? Which of the following forecasting techniques generates trend forecasts?įor this set of errors: -1, -4, 0, +2, +3, MAD is: Seasonality refers to data patterns that recur every year (or every week, or every month, etc.) at about the same time. In a good forecast, about half of the forecast misses should be randomly scattered above the actual results and half below the actual results.ĭouble exponential smoothing can only be used if there is no observable trend in the data. The Delphi technique is a forecasting model, developed in India, which incorporates the use of multiple regression. If quantitative data is available on which to base a forecast, it is unnecessary to consider qualitative information. If the forecasting model is a good one, it will improve the input used.Īggregated (grouped) data frequently generate better forecasts than non-aggregated data used to forecast individual items. Accurate forecasting can be done with inaccurate historical data.
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